UNWTO: International tourist numbers could drop 60-80% during 2020
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a 22% fall in international tourist arrivals during the first quarter of 2020, the latest data from the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) shows. According to the United Nations specialized agency, the crisis could lead to an annual decline of between 60% and 80% when compared with 2019 figures. This places millions of livelihoods at risk and threatens to roll back progress made in advancing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili said: “The world is facing an unprecedented health and economic crisis. Tourism has been hit hard, with millions of jobs at risk in one of the most labor-intensive sectors of the economy.
Available data reported by destinations point to a 22% decline in arrivals in the first three months of the year, according to the latest UNWTO World Tourism Barometer. Arrivals in March dropped sharply by 57% following the start of a lockdown in many countries, as well as the widespread introduction of travel restrictions and the closure of airports and national borders. This translates into a loss of 67 million international arrivals and about US$80 billion in receipts (exports from tourism).
Although Asia and the Pacific recorded the highest impact in relative and absolute terms (-33 million arrivals), the impact in Europe, though lower in percentage, is quite high in volume (-22 million).
International tourist arrivals, 2019 and Q1 2020 (% change)
International Tourism 2020 Scenarios
Prospects for the year have been downgraded several times since the outbreak and uncertainty continues to dominate. Current scenarios point to possible declines in arrivals of 58% to 78% for the year. These depend on the speed of containment and the duration of travel restrictions and the shutdown of borders. The following scenarios for 2020 are based on three possible dates for the gradual opening up of international borders.
- Scenario 1 (-58%) based on the gradual opening of international borders and easing of travel restrictions in early July
- Scenario 2 (-70%) based on the gradual opening of international borders and easing of travel restrictions in early September
- Scenario 3 (-78%) based on the gradual opening of international borders and easing of travel restrictions only in early December.
International tourist arrivals in 2020: three scenarios (YoY monthly change, %)
* Actual data through March includes estimates for countries which have not yet reported data.
Source: UNWTO
Note: The scenarios presented in this graph are not forecasts. They represent an alternative monthly change in arrivals based on the gradual opening of national borders and lifting of travel restrictions on different dates, still subject to high uncertainty.
Under these scenarios, the impact of the loss of demand in international travel could translate into:
- Loss of 850 million to 1.1 billion international tourists
- Loss of US$910 billion to US$1.2 trillion in export revenues from tourism
- 100 to 120 million direct tourism jobs at risk
This is by far the worst crisis that international tourism has faced since records began (1950). The impact will be felt to varying degrees in the different global regions and at overlapping times, with Asia and the Pacific expected to rebound first.
Experts see recovery in 2021
Domestic demand is expected to recover faster than international demand according to the UNWTO Panel of Experts survey. The majority expects to see signs of recovery by the final quarter of 2020 but mostly in 2021. Based on previous crises, leisure travel is expected to recover quicker, particularly travel for visiting friends and relatives, than business travel.
The estimates regarding the recovery of international travel are more positive in Africa and the Middle East with most experts foreseeing recovery still in 2020. Experts in the Americas are the least optimistic and least likely to believe in recovery in 2020, while in Europe and Asia the outlook is mixed, with half of the experts expecting to see recovery within this year.
When do you expect tourism demand in your destination will start to recover?
When do you expect international demand for your destination will start to recover?
- 1) UN Tourism members promote agenda for Europe as region leads global recovery
- 2) Greek Interior Minister to visit United States and Canada on postal vote
- 3) WTTC data show Greece and Portugal lead league for growth in tourist arrivals
- 4) ITB BERLIN 2024 opens with excellent bookings after global rise in travel in 2023
25/04 02:19
Athens Airport voted as the best in marketing strategy at European awards in Denmark
25/04 02:10
President of Hellenic Republic visits La Chascona Museum in visit to Chile
24/04 21:31
Thirty-one Greek political parties to take part in European Parliament elections
24/04 21:25
Payment by bank cards now accepted on Athens Airport Express bus lines
24/04 14:12
Herculaneum papyri unveil more than location of Plato's tomb in Athens
23/04 23:52
Greece’s New Ambassador to the United States visits Queens in New York
23/04 21:49
Traffic regulations in Athens due to the Olympic Torch Relay on Thursday-Friday
23/04 20:59
President of Hellenic Republic wraps up visit to Uruguay at parliament
23/04 15:44
Greek government will pass legislation halving commission paid for POS transactions
23/04 15:03
Precise location of Plato's burial site unveiled by ancient papyrus
22/04 22:33
'Nature Positive' peport highlights new collaborative era in travel & tourism
22/04 21:25
22/04 20:37
Greek and Turkish delegations discuss Confidence Building Measures for 2024
22/04 18:29
Over 114,000 Greek Diaspora citizens register to vote by post in the European elections
22/04 13:40
19/04 01:29
Athens State Orchestra presents 'St. Matthew's Passion' by Bach on April 30th
18/04 21:49
Greek Climate Change Minister signs memorandum for Attica fire protection zones
18/04 20:32
'Easter Basket' and 'Godparents basket' to be put into effect next week in Greece
18/04 20:17
18/04 17:40
17/04 21:06
Thessaloniki Port: Performance growth for 2023 with record container throughput
17/04 20:57
Traffic regulations imposed in Athens for the 41st Peace Marathon on Sunday
17/04 20:52
17/04 18:15
Greek Foreign Minister addresses the 9th Our Ocean Conference in Athens
17/04 17:12
16/04 21:02
NHM hosts the Trial of Pericles at the Harris Theater in Chicago on April 17
16/04 20:17
Greece will invest $830 million to protect marine biodiversity
16/04 01:46
New York Greek Independence Parade honors 1821 and solemn Cyprus Anniversary
16/04 01:35
Olympic Games Paris 2024: Olympic Flame to be lit at Ancient Olympia in Greece
16/04 00:29
European Committee of Regions and UN release study on Rural Tourism
15/04 20:41
15/04 19:58
Minister: Greece is transforming into a hub for exporting quality agri-food products
15/04 18:51
Greek Environment Minister meets Chinese Deputy Minister of Natural Resources
13/04 00:13
UN Tourism and Croatia to launch Research Centre for Sustainable Tourism
12/04 00:03
2024 marks a critical year in the enduring strength of Greek-German relations
12/04 00:00
11/04 22:07
Ambassador: US committed to upgrade of Greek military and support NATO's SE flank
11/04 19:40
Hellenic Pride on display at rainy Chicago Greek Independence Day Parade
11/04 02:06
Delphi Economic Forum IX: Energy collaboration a 'key' in Greek-Bulgarian relations
11/04 01:58
UN Tourism launches investment guidelines for Albania sector
10/04 19:01
Greek FinMin: New package of economic measures in 2025 to lower taxes, raise pensions
10/04 18:25
Greek city of Nafplion hosts Mediterranean Yacht Show for ninth year running
09/04 23:57
Greek PM on Tilos: Innovative projects for a cyclical economy are of key significance
09/04 23:55
UN Tourism members promote agenda for Europe as region leads global recovery
09/04 23:46
HFS presents 1968, Rousing Docudrama about Greece’s First European Cup April 21
09/04 22:48
Stolen 7th-century BC oenochoe returned to Greece by Hanover museum, municipality
09/04 22:42
Greek civil servants confederation ADEDY to strike on May 21
09/04 21:55
Greek Migration Minister meets Senior US Coordinator for Lawful Migration
08/04 23:48
08/04 23:41
Elliniko-Argyroupoli Mayor marches in Greek Independence Philadelphia Parade
08/04 21:53
Project Voria casino complex in Maroussi moving ahead after environmental report
08/04 21:36
Minister: Up to 120 delegations to take part in 9th Our Ocean Conference in Athens
08/04 19:22
Direct flight from Shanghai to Athens offers access to key tourism market for Greece
08/04 18:31
AI conference to attract distinguished speakers to Thessaloniki on April 25-27
04/04 23:28
City of San Jose marks March 25 with 16th Annual Greek Flag Raising Event
04/04 22:16
Urban plans published for seven townships in Thessaloniki and Attica of Greece
04/04 17:24
FinMin: The new EU economic and fiscal framework is good for Greece
04/04 15:30
Greek PM meets with the chiefs of the international pharmaceutical manufacturers
04/04 00:15
Deputy Minister for Macedonia-Thrace meets US Embassy Deputy Mission Chief
03/04 20:12
Syracuse AHEPA Chapter 37 marks March 25th Greek Independence Day
03/04 18:10
Greece's Delphi Economic Forum on April 10-13 to focus on 'The Great Transition'
03/04 16:42
Minister: Industrial production has returned to the pre-crisis levels in Greece
02/04 18:06
30/03 23:21
Eleni Gatzoyiannis scholarship offered to Greek students at Boston University
29/03 16:44
3rd edition of 'This is Athens - City Festival' with 250+ events from May 1 until June 2
29/03 15:53
Athens Metro station Aghia Varvara to stay closed on Saturday and Sunday
29/03 13:55
Greek Foreign Minister for Economic Diplomacy concludes visit to Montenegro
29/03 12:00
29/03 11:51
28/03 18:41
Attica Region to channel 640 bln euros to services of vulnerable and disadvantaged groups
28/03 17:32
Greece to auction three-month T-bills on April 3, 2024 in a book entry form
28/03 15:46
Greece's Meteora Pyli Geopark added to UNESCO Global Geoparks network
28/03 14:44
IPTO announces framework agreement tender for undersea power cables in Greece
28/03 11:49
IOBE: Construction sector in Greece records robust growth and good prospects
26/03 23:51
St. Thomas Hellenic School honors 1821 and the Feast of the Annunciation in NJ
26/03 21:59
PM at Economic Club of Canada: Greece is an attractive investment destination
26/03 17:56
Greek State budget primary balance reaches a surplus of 3,378 million euros
26/03 11:45
Ancient Messene to get upgraded visitors' facilities after approval by Council
23/03 17:43
New requirements for 'Golden Visa' program to kick in on March 31
23/03 16:49
Athenians continue to head out of the Greek Capital for March 25 long weekend
23/03 16:47
Greek Parliament lights to be turned off for Earth Hour 8:30-9:30 pm
22/03 21:54
US President on Greek Independence Day: Alliance with Greece stronger than ever
22/03 19:51
High diplomacy and geopolitics at Delphi Economic Forum IX in Greece
22/03 19:32
Tax authorities enable payments with foreign bank cards in Greece
22/03 14:19
22/03 00:24
Greece ranks first on list of countries with fastest business environment progress
22/03 00:02
Hellenic Police acquires first electric VAN-type highway patrol vehicle
21/03 22:41
21/03 15:33
Unseen Museum presents "The stele of the twin babies" exhibition in Athens
20/03 22:48
Health Minister: 95% of Greek hospitals to perform afternoon surgeries
20/03 21:52
Greek Deputy Minister of Justice meets delegation from US Embassy in Athens
20/03 21:44
Greek Interior Minister to visit United States and Canada on postal vote
20/03 20:55
Philadelphia Icarians mark 85th Anniversary and organize Apokriatiko Dance
20/03 18:01
Development Minister: We continue the battle against high prices in Greece
19/03 22:28
President of the Hellenic Republic meets her Ethiopian counterpart in Athens
19/03 20:57
19/03 20:25
FinMIn: Moody’s analysis records significant progress in the Greek economy
19/03 11:15
Sector chiefs report: Good news for Greek tourism in 2024 at ITB Berlin
18/03 22:20
American Hellenic Educational Progressive Association honors Past Supreme President
16/03 13:01
Greek Deputy Foreign Μinister meets her Slovenian counterpart in Athens
President of Hellenic Republic visits La Chascona Museum in visit to Chile
Athens Airport voted as the best in marketing strategy at European awards in Denmark
Traffic regulations in Athens due to the Olympic Torch Relay on Thursday-Friday
Herculaneum papyri unveil more than location of Plato's tomb in Athens
Payment by bank cards now accepted on Athens Airport Express bus lines
Thirty-one Greek political parties to take part in European Parliament elections
Greece’s New Ambassador to the United States visits Queens in New York
Precise location of Plato's burial site unveiled by ancient papyrus
Greek government will pass legislation halving commission paid for POS transactions
President of Hellenic Republic wraps up visit to Uruguay at parliament
Athens Acropolis Museum to host photo show of historic Greek costumes
Over 114,000 Greek Diaspora citizens register to vote by post in the European elections
'Nature Positive' peport highlights new collaborative era in travel & tourism
Greek and Turkish delegations discuss Confidence Building Measures for 2024
Greek Deputy Transport Minister flies in first test seaplane flight from Lavrio port
UNESCO adds Greece's Zagorochoria to its World Heritage List
Infrastructure works on Spinalonga island to assist visitors and protect the monument
Apartments prices continued upward momentum in Cyprus during Q4 2022
Greek Environment Minister meets Chinese Deputy Minister of Natural Resources
PM at Axia discussion: Greece offering great investment opportunities in 2023
UNWTO promotes people's role and MSMES as sector transformation agents