IATA: Optimism for aviation demand return when borders reopen
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) and Tourism Economics released a long-term view for post-COVID-19 passenger demand recovery which demonstrates that people remain eager to travel in the short and long-term. To ensure that aviation can sustainably deliver its social and economic benefits as it meets this long-term demand, it is critical that governments step up their support for more efficient operations and foster an effective energy transition.
Forecast highlights include:
In 2021 global passenger numbers are expected to recover to 52% of pre-COVID-19 levels (2019).
In 2022 global passenger numbers are expected to recover to 88% of pre-COVID-19 levels.
In 2023 global passenger numbers are expected to surpass pre-COVID-19 levels (105%).
By 2030 global passenger numbers are expected to have grown to 5.6 billion. That would be 7% below the pre-COVID-19 forecast and an estimated loss of 2-3 years of growth due to COVID-19.
Beyond 2030 air travel is expected to slow, due to weaker demographics and a baseline assumption of limited market liberalization, giving average annual growth between 2019 and 2039 of 3.2%. IATA’s pre-COVID-19 growth forecast for this period was 3.8%.
The recovery in passenger numbers is slightly stronger than the recovery in demand measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs), which is expected to grow by an annual average of 3% between 2019 and 2039. This is owing to the expected strength of domestic markets like China with large passenger numbers and shorter distances.
“I am always optimistic about aviation. We are in the deepest and gravest crisis in our history. But the rapidly growing vaccinated population and advancements in testing will return the freedom to fly in the months ahead. And when that happens, people are going to want to travel. The immediate challenge is to reopen borders, eliminate quarantine measures and digitally manage vaccination/testing certificates. At the same time, we must assure the world that aviation’s long-term growth prospects are supported with an unwavering commitment to sustainability. Both challenges require governments and the industry to work in partnership. Aviation is ready. But I don’t see governments moving fast enough,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director-General.
Short Term: Restart
The damage of the COVID-19 crisis will be felt for years to come, but all indications are that people have retained their need and desire to travel:
Any possibility for borders to re-open is met with an instant surge in bookings. The most recent example is the 100-percentage point spike in bookings from the UK to Portugal when the UK’s “Green List” was announced in early May.
The economy is strong and can fuel growth in travel. February 2021 industrial production levels stood at 2% above February 2019 levels.
Consumers have accumulated savings in the lockdowns, in some cases exceeding 10% of GDP.
Vaccination rates in developed countries (with the notable exception of Japan) should exceed 50% of the population by the third quarter of 2021.
“This should be a clarion call to governments to get ready. The travel and tourism sector is a major contributor to GDP. People’s livelihoods are at stake. To avoid greater long-term economic and social damage, restart must not be delayed. Governments can facilitate a safe restart with policies that enable restriction-free travel for vaccinated people, and testing alternatives for those unable to be vaccinated. Governments must also be ready with processes to digitally manage the vaccine or test certificates—ensuring that a safe restart is also efficient,” said Walsh.
Sustainability
“Aviation will grow because people want and need to travel. But we must be able to fulfil that consumer demand sustainably. Those are the ground rules for any business. It is no secret that this is more challenging for aviation than sectors with broader energy alternatives. But with the support of governments we will get there through a combination of means,” said Walsh.
Aviation is committed to cutting its net carbon emissions to half of 2005 levels by 2050. It already has a good track record of decoupling emissions and demand growth per passenger journey in half since 1990 through efficiency gains, but governments need to step up as well.
In addition to efficiency and technology gains, CORSIA (the first global carbon offsetting scheme for an industrial sector) is stabilizing emissions from international flights at 2019 levels. A low-carbon energy transition for aviation has commenced with sustainable aviation fuels that are powering flight today, to be followed by electric and hydrogen-powered aircraft. And there is much more that can be done with infrastructure—airports and air traffic management—to operate with maximum efficiency and minimum emissions.
“If we work in partnership with governments there is great potential in all these areas. But easy sustainability wins are being left on the table. In Europe, which has led on many sustainability initiatives, why are we still waiting for the Single European Sky? This could immediately reduce emissions by up to 10%. There is no excuse as technology has been here for two decades or more. The partnership with governments on sustainability must exist in deeds as well as words,” said Walsh.
RELATED TOPICS: Greece, Greek tourism news, Tourism in Greece, Greek islands, Hotels in Greece, Travel to Greece, Greek destinations, Greek travel market, Greek tourism statistics, Greek tourism report
Photo Source: pixabay.com
- 1) Direct flight from Shanghai to Athens offers access to key tourism market for Greece
- 2) US Ambassador to Athens: More flights from the United States to Greece and Thessaloniki
- 3) Chairman: 2023 was an exceptional one for AEGEAN Airlines
- 4) Flights to and from Heraklion airport in Crete resume on Saturday
19/04 01:29
Athens State Orchestra presents 'St. Matthew's Passion' by Bach on April 30th
18/04 21:49
Greek Climate Change Minister signs memorandum for Attica fire protection zones
18/04 20:32
'Easter Basket' and 'Godparents basket' to be put into effect next week in Greece
18/04 20:17
18/04 17:40
17/04 21:06
Thessaloniki Port: Performance growth for 2023 with record container throughput
17/04 20:57
Traffic regulations imposed in Athens for the 41st Peace Marathon on Sunday
17/04 20:52
17/04 18:15
Greek Foreign Minister addresses the 9th Our Ocean Conference in Athens
17/04 17:12
16/04 21:02
NHM hosts the Trial of Pericles at the Harris Theater in Chicago on April 17
16/04 20:17
Greece will invest $830 million to protect marine biodiversity
16/04 01:46
New York Greek Independence Parade honors 1821 and solemn Cyprus Anniversary
16/04 01:35
Olympic Games Paris 2024: Olympic Flame to be lit at Ancient Olympia in Greece
16/04 00:29
European Committee of Regions and UN release study on Rural Tourism
15/04 20:41
15/04 19:58
Minister: Greece is transforming into a hub for exporting quality agri-food products
15/04 18:51
Greek Environment Minister meets Chinese Deputy Minister of Natural Resources
13/04 00:13
UN Tourism and Croatia to launch Research Centre for Sustainable Tourism
12/04 00:03
2024 marks a critical year in the enduring strength of Greek-German relations
12/04 00:00
11/04 22:07
Ambassador: US committed to upgrade of Greek military and support NATO's SE flank
11/04 19:40
Hellenic Pride on display at rainy Chicago Greek Independence Day Parade
11/04 02:06
Delphi Economic Forum IX: Energy collaboration a 'key' in Greek-Bulgarian relations
11/04 01:58
UN Tourism launches investment guidelines for Albania sector
10/04 19:01
Greek FinMin: New package of economic measures in 2025 to lower taxes, raise pensions
10/04 18:25
Greek city of Nafplion hosts Mediterranean Yacht Show for ninth year running
09/04 23:57
Greek PM on Tilos: Innovative projects for a cyclical economy are of key significance
09/04 23:55
UN Tourism members promote agenda for Europe as region leads global recovery
09/04 23:46
HFS presents 1968, Rousing Docudrama about Greece’s First European Cup April 21
09/04 22:48
Stolen 7th-century BC oenochoe returned to Greece by Hanover museum, municipality
09/04 22:42
Greek civil servants confederation ADEDY to strike on May 21
09/04 21:55
Greek Migration Minister meets Senior US Coordinator for Lawful Migration
08/04 23:48
08/04 23:41
Elliniko-Argyroupoli Mayor marches in Greek Independence Philadelphia Parade
08/04 21:53
Project Voria casino complex in Maroussi moving ahead after environmental report
08/04 21:36
Minister: Up to 120 delegations to take part in 9th Our Ocean Conference in Athens
08/04 19:22
Direct flight from Shanghai to Athens offers access to key tourism market for Greece
08/04 18:31
AI conference to attract distinguished speakers to Thessaloniki on April 25-27
04/04 23:28
City of San Jose marks March 25 with 16th Annual Greek Flag Raising Event
04/04 22:16
Urban plans published for seven townships in Thessaloniki and Attica of Greece
04/04 17:24
FinMin: The new EU economic and fiscal framework is good for Greece
04/04 15:30
Greek PM meets with the chiefs of the international pharmaceutical manufacturers
04/04 00:15
Deputy Minister for Macedonia-Thrace meets US Embassy Deputy Mission Chief
03/04 20:12
Syracuse AHEPA Chapter 37 marks March 25th Greek Independence Day
03/04 18:10
Greece's Delphi Economic Forum on April 10-13 to focus on 'The Great Transition'
03/04 16:42
Minister: Industrial production has returned to the pre-crisis levels in Greece
02/04 18:06
30/03 23:21
Eleni Gatzoyiannis scholarship offered to Greek students at Boston University
29/03 16:44
3rd edition of 'This is Athens - City Festival' with 250+ events from May 1 until June 2
29/03 15:53
Athens Metro station Aghia Varvara to stay closed on Saturday and Sunday
29/03 13:55
Greek Foreign Minister for Economic Diplomacy concludes visit to Montenegro
29/03 12:00
29/03 11:51
28/03 18:41
Attica Region to channel 640 bln euros to services of vulnerable and disadvantaged groups
28/03 17:32
Greece to auction three-month T-bills on April 3, 2024 in a book entry form
28/03 15:46
Greece's Meteora Pyli Geopark added to UNESCO Global Geoparks network
28/03 14:44
IPTO announces framework agreement tender for undersea power cables in Greece
28/03 11:49
IOBE: Construction sector in Greece records robust growth and good prospects
26/03 23:51
St. Thomas Hellenic School honors 1821 and the Feast of the Annunciation in NJ
26/03 21:59
PM at Economic Club of Canada: Greece is an attractive investment destination
26/03 17:56
Greek State budget primary balance reaches a surplus of 3,378 million euros
26/03 11:45
Ancient Messene to get upgraded visitors' facilities after approval by Council
23/03 17:43
New requirements for 'Golden Visa' program to kick in on March 31
23/03 16:49
Athenians continue to head out of the Greek Capital for March 25 long weekend
23/03 16:47
Greek Parliament lights to be turned off for Earth Hour 8:30-9:30 pm
22/03 21:54
US President on Greek Independence Day: Alliance with Greece stronger than ever
22/03 19:51
High diplomacy and geopolitics at Delphi Economic Forum IX in Greece
22/03 19:32
Tax authorities enable payments with foreign bank cards in Greece
22/03 14:19
22/03 00:24
Greece ranks first on list of countries with fastest business environment progress
22/03 00:02
Hellenic Police acquires first electric VAN-type highway patrol vehicle
21/03 22:41
21/03 15:33
Unseen Museum presents "The stele of the twin babies" exhibition in Athens
20/03 22:48
Health Minister: 95% of Greek hospitals to perform afternoon surgeries
20/03 21:52
Greek Deputy Minister of Justice meets delegation from US Embassy in Athens
20/03 21:44
Greek Interior Minister to visit United States and Canada on postal vote
20/03 20:55
Philadelphia Icarians mark 85th Anniversary and organize Apokriatiko Dance
20/03 18:01
Development Minister: We continue the battle against high prices in Greece
19/03 22:28
President of the Hellenic Republic meets her Ethiopian counterpart in Athens
19/03 20:57
19/03 20:25
FinMIn: Moody’s analysis records significant progress in the Greek economy
19/03 11:15
Sector chiefs report: Good news for Greek tourism in 2024 at ITB Berlin
18/03 22:20
American Hellenic Educational Progressive Association honors Past Supreme President
16/03 13:01
Greek Deputy Foreign Μinister meets her Slovenian counterpart in Athens
16/03 12:56
Greek-Canadian Diaspora to welcome Greek Prime Minister to Toronto
16/03 11:28
Greek Migration Minister visits refugee hosting facilities in Kavala, Drama and Serres
15/03 21:50
Greek Minister announces conference on defence ecosystem in Athens from Lithuania
15/03 13:45
PM: More than 80 hospitals and 156 health centres being upgraded in Greece
15/03 12:55
Piraeus Port and Genoa Chambers of Commerce ink memorandum of cooperation
14/03 23:43
President of Hellenic Republic meets Prime Minister of Slovakia in Bratislava
14/03 22:58
American Express report highlights Global Travel Trends during 2024
14/03 22:52
Four hospitals in Attica Region already organizing afternoon surgical procedures
14/03 22:49
US Ambassador to Athens: More flights from the United States to Greece and Thessaloniki
14/03 22:43
Greek archaeologists discover ten ancient shipwrecks off Aegean island of Kasos
14/03 19:32
No new intubations for Covid-19 recorded in Greece for the first time
14/03 18:36
Extra road safety measures adopted for Greek pre-lent carnival and Clean Monday
14/03 14:48
14/03 12:54
Electric buses to be deployed on the streets of Athens and Thessaloniki by May
13/03 22:23
'Easter Basket' and 'Godparents basket' to be put into effect next week in Greece
Greek Climate Change Minister signs memorandum for Attica fire protection zones
Athens State Orchestra presents 'St. Matthew's Passion' by Bach on April 30th
Traffic regulations imposed in Athens for the 41st Peace Marathon on Sunday
Greek Foreign Minister addresses the 9th Our Ocean Conference in Athens
Thessaloniki Port: Performance growth for 2023 with record container throughput
Olympic Games Paris 2024: Olympic Flame to be lit at Ancient Olympia in Greece
Greek Deputy Transport Minister flies in first test seaplane flight from Lavrio port
Greek Environment Minister meets Chinese Deputy Minister of Natural Resources
NHM hosts the Trial of Pericles at the Harris Theater in Chicago on April 17
Greece will invest $830 million to protect marine biodiversity
Greek Deputy Culture Minister and Indian ambassador talk cooperation in film sector
Minister: Greece to support Bulgaria and Romania in joining the Schengen zone
Greek tax service AADE launches updated website new section on expatriates
Hellenic Film Society organizes traditional Vasilopita Cutting on January 28
St. Thomas Hellenic Afternoon School marked the Feast Day of the Three Hierarchs
European Committee of Regions and UN release study on Rural Tourism
Yale University students visit The Εllinikon Experience Center in Greece
Weather with heavy rain and storms in Greece as of Sunday night