Aviation recovery delayed as international travel remains locked down
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released an updated global passenger forecast showing that the recovery in traffic has been slower than had been expected.
In the base case scenario:
- Global passenger traffic (revenue passenger kilometers or RPKs) will not return to pre-COVID-19 levels until 2024, a year later than previously projected.
- The recovery in short-haul travel is still expected to happen faster than for long haul travel. As a result, passenger numbers will recover faster than traffic measured in RPKs. Recovery to pre-COVID-19 levels, however, will also slide by a year from 2022 to 2023. For 2020, global passenger numbers (enplanements) are expected to decline by 55% compared to 2019, worsened from the April forecast of 46%.
June 2020 passenger traffic foreshadowed the slower-than-expected recovery. Traffic, measures in RPK, fell 86.5% compared to the year-ago period. That is only slightly improved from a 91.0% contraction in May. This was driven by rising demand in domestic markets, particularly China. The June load factor set an all-time low for the month at 57.6%.
The more pessimistic recovery outlook is based on a number of recent trends:
- Slow virus containment in the US and developing economies: Although developed economies outside of the US have been largely successful in containing the spread of the virus, renewed outbreaks have occurred in these economies, and in China. Furthermore, there is little sign of virus containment in many important emerging economies, which in combination with the US, represent around 40% of global air travel markets. Their continued closure, particularly to international travel, is a significant drag on the recovery.
- Reduced corporate travel: Corporate travel budgets are expected to be very constrained as companies continue to be under financial pressure even as the economy improves. In addition, while historically GDP growth and air travel have been highly correlated, surveys suggest this link has weakened, particularly with regard to business travel, as video conferencing appears to have made significant inroads as a substitute for in-person meetings.
- Weak consumer confidence: While pent-up demand exists for VFR (visiting friends and relatives) and leisure travel, consumer confidence is weak in the face of concerns over job security and rising unemployment, as well as risks of catching COVID-19. Some 55% of respondents to IATA’s June passenger survey don’t plan to travel in 2020.
Owing to these factors, IATA’s revised baseline forecast is for global enplanements to fall 55% in 2020 compared to 2019 (the April forecast was for a 46% decline). Passenger numbers are expected to rise 62% in 2021 off the depressed 2020 base, but still will be down almost 30% compared to 2019. A full recovery to 2019 levels is not expected until 2023, one year later than previously forecast.
Meanwhile, since domestic markets are opening ahead of international markets, and because passengers appear to prefer short-haul travel in the current environment, RPKs will recover more slowly, with passenger traffic expected to return to 2019 levels in 2024, one year later than previously forecast. Scientific advances in fighting COVID-19 including development of a successful vaccine could allow a faster recovery. However, at present there appears to be more downside risk than upside to the baseline forecast.
“Passenger traffic hit bottom in April, but the strength of the upturn has been very weak. What improvement we have seen has been domestic flying. International markets remain largely closed. Consumer confidence is depressed and not helped by the UK’s weekend decision to impose a blanket quarantine on all travelers returning from Spain. And in many parts of the world infections are still rising. All of this points to a longer recovery period and more pain for the industry and the global economy,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO.
“For airlines, this is bad news that points to the need for governments to continue with relief measures—financial and otherwise. A full Northern Winter season waiver on the 80-20 use-it-or-lose it slot rule, for example, would provide critical relief to airlines in planning schedules amid unpredictable demand patterns. Airlines are planning their schedules. They need to keep sharply focused on meeting demand and not meeting slot rules that were never meant to accommodate the sharp fluctuations of a crisis. The earlier we know the slot rules the better, but we are still waiting for governments in key markets to confirm a waiver,” said de Juniac.
June 2020 Performance
JUNE 2020 (% YEAR-ON-YEAR) | WORLD SHARE1 | RPK | ASK | PLF (%-PT)2 | PLF (LEVEL)3 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Market
|
100.0%
|
-86.5%
|
-80.1%
|
-26.8%
|
57.6%
|
Africa
|
2.1%
|
-96.5%
|
-84.5%
|
-54.9%
|
16.2%
|
Asia Pacific
|
34.6%
|
-74.4%
|
-69.6%
|
-18.5%
|
63.8%
|
Europe
|
26.8%
|
-93.7%
|
-90.0%
|
-31.9%
|
55.5%
|
Latin America
|
5.1%
|
-91.2%
|
-89.0%
|
-16.7%
|
66.6%
|
Middle East
|
9.1%
|
-95.5%
|
-90.4%
|
-40.7%
|
35.7%
|
North America
|
22.3%
|
-86.3%
|
-76.9%
|
-36.5%
|
52.4%
|
1) % of industry RPKs in 2019 2) Year-on-year change in load factor 3) Load Factor Level
International Passenger Markets
June international traffic shrank by 96.8% compared to June 2019, only slightly improved over a 98.3% decline in May, year-over-year. Capacity fell 93.2% and load factor contracted 44.7 percentage points to 38.9%.
- Asia-Pacific airlines’ June traffic plummeted 97.1% compared to the year-ago period, little improved from the 98.1% decline in May. Capacity fell 93.4% and load factor shrank 45.8 percentage points to 35.6%.
- European carriers saw demand topple 96.7% in June versus a year ago, compared to a 98.7% decline in May. Capacity dropped 94.4% and load factor lessened 35.7 percentage points to 52.0%.
- Middle Eastern airlines traffic collapsed 96.1% for June against June 2019, compared with a 97.7% demand drop in May. Capacity contracted 91.1%, and load factor crumbled to 33.3%, down 43.1% percentage points compared to a year ago.
- North American carriers had a 97.2% traffic decline in June, barely improved from a 98.3% decline in May. Capacity fell 92.8%, and load factor dropped 53.8 percentage points to 34.1%.
- Latin American airlines suffered a 96.6% demand drop in June compared to the same month last year, from a 98.1% drop in May. Capacity fell 95.7% and load factor sagged 17.7 percentage points to 66.2%, which was the highest among the regions.
- African airlines’ traffic sank 98.1% in June, little changed from a 98.6% demand drop in May. Capacity contracted 84.5%, and load factor dived 62.1 percentage points to just 8.9% of seats filled, lowest among regions.
Domestic Passenger Markets
Domestic traffic demand fell 67.6% in June, improved from a 78.4% decline in May. Capacity fell 55.9% and load factor dropped 22.8 percentage points to 62.9%.
JUNE 2020 (% YEAR-ON-YEAR) | WORLD SHARE1 | RPK | ASK | PLF (%-PT)2 | PLF (LEVEL)3 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Market
|
100.0%
|
-86.5%
|
-80.1%
|
-26.8%
|
57.6%
|
Africa
|
2.1%
|
-96.5%
|
-84.5%
|
-54.9%
|
16.2%
|
Asia Pacific
|
34.6%
|
-74.4%
|
-69.6%
|
-18.5%
|
63.8%
|
Europe
|
26.8%
|
-93.7%
|
-90.0%
|
-31.9%
|
55.5%
|
Latin America
|
5.1%
|
-91.2%
|
-89.0%
|
-16.7%
|
66.6%
|
Middle East
|
9.1%
|
-95.5%
|
-90.4%
|
-40.7%
|
35.7%
|
North America
|
22.3%
|
-86.3%
|
-76.9%
|
-36.5%
|
52.4%
|
1) % of industry RPKs in 2019 2) Year-on-year change in load factor 3) Load Factor Level
- China’s carriers continued to lead the recovery, with traffic down 35.5% in June compared to the year-ago period, raised from a 46.3% decline in May.
- Japan’s airlines saw improved domestic demand after the state of COVID-19 emergency was lifted in late May. Domestic RPKs fell by 74.9% year-on-year in June, compared with around 90% annual declines in the previous two months.
The Bottom Line
“Domestic traffic improvements notwithstanding, international traffic, which in normal times accounts for close to two-thirds of global air travel, remains virtually non-existent. Most countries are still closed to international arrivals or have imposed quarantines, that have the same effect as an outright lockdown. Summer — our industry’s busiest season — is passing by rapidly; with little chance for an upswing in international air travel unless governments move quickly and decisively to find alternatives to border closures, confidence-destroying stop-start re-openings, and demand-killing quarantine,” said de Juniac.
IATA urges governments to implement a layer of measures including the International Civil Aviation Organization’s (ICAO’s) global guidelines for restoring air connectivity contained in ICAO’s Takeoff: Guidance for Air Travel through the COVID-19 Public Health Crisis. IATA also sees potential for accurate, fast, scalable, and affordable testing measures and comprehensive contact tracing to play a role in managing the risk of virus spread while re-connecting economies and re-starting travel and tourism. “We need to learn to manage the risks of living with COVID-19 with targeted and predictable measures that will safely re-build traveler confidence and shattered economies,” said de Juniac.
RELATED TOPICS: Greece, Greek tourism news, Tourism in Greece, Greek islands, Hotels in Greece, Travel to Greece, Greek destinations, Greek travel market, Greek tourism statistics, Greek tourism report
Photo Source: Wikimedia Commons License: CC-BY-SA Copyright: Martin Roell
- 1) Direct flight from Shanghai to Athens offers access to key tourism market for Greece
- 2) US Ambassador to Athens: More flights from the United States to Greece and Thessaloniki
- 3) Chairman: 2023 was an exceptional one for AEGEAN Airlines
- 4) Flights to and from Heraklion airport in Crete resume on Saturday
22/04 22:33
'Nature Positive' peport highlights new collaborative era in travel & tourism
22/04 21:25
22/04 20:37
Greek and Turkish delegations discuss Confidence Building Measures for 2024
22/04 18:29
Over 114,000 Greek Diaspora citizens register to vote by post in the European elections
22/04 13:40
19/04 01:29
Athens State Orchestra presents 'St. Matthew's Passion' by Bach on April 30th
18/04 21:49
Greek Climate Change Minister signs memorandum for Attica fire protection zones
18/04 20:32
'Easter Basket' and 'Godparents basket' to be put into effect next week in Greece
18/04 20:17
18/04 17:40
17/04 21:06
Thessaloniki Port: Performance growth for 2023 with record container throughput
17/04 20:57
Traffic regulations imposed in Athens for the 41st Peace Marathon on Sunday
17/04 20:52
17/04 18:15
Greek Foreign Minister addresses the 9th Our Ocean Conference in Athens
17/04 17:12
16/04 21:02
NHM hosts the Trial of Pericles at the Harris Theater in Chicago on April 17
16/04 20:17
Greece will invest $830 million to protect marine biodiversity
16/04 01:46
New York Greek Independence Parade honors 1821 and solemn Cyprus Anniversary
16/04 01:35
Olympic Games Paris 2024: Olympic Flame to be lit at Ancient Olympia in Greece
16/04 00:29
European Committee of Regions and UN release study on Rural Tourism
15/04 20:41
15/04 19:58
Minister: Greece is transforming into a hub for exporting quality agri-food products
15/04 18:51
Greek Environment Minister meets Chinese Deputy Minister of Natural Resources
13/04 00:13
UN Tourism and Croatia to launch Research Centre for Sustainable Tourism
12/04 00:03
2024 marks a critical year in the enduring strength of Greek-German relations
12/04 00:00
11/04 22:07
Ambassador: US committed to upgrade of Greek military and support NATO's SE flank
11/04 19:40
Hellenic Pride on display at rainy Chicago Greek Independence Day Parade
11/04 02:06
Delphi Economic Forum IX: Energy collaboration a 'key' in Greek-Bulgarian relations
11/04 01:58
UN Tourism launches investment guidelines for Albania sector
10/04 19:01
Greek FinMin: New package of economic measures in 2025 to lower taxes, raise pensions
10/04 18:25
Greek city of Nafplion hosts Mediterranean Yacht Show for ninth year running
09/04 23:57
Greek PM on Tilos: Innovative projects for a cyclical economy are of key significance
09/04 23:55
UN Tourism members promote agenda for Europe as region leads global recovery
09/04 23:46
HFS presents 1968, Rousing Docudrama about Greece’s First European Cup April 21
09/04 22:48
Stolen 7th-century BC oenochoe returned to Greece by Hanover museum, municipality
09/04 22:42
Greek civil servants confederation ADEDY to strike on May 21
09/04 21:55
Greek Migration Minister meets Senior US Coordinator for Lawful Migration
08/04 23:48
08/04 23:41
Elliniko-Argyroupoli Mayor marches in Greek Independence Philadelphia Parade
08/04 21:53
Project Voria casino complex in Maroussi moving ahead after environmental report
08/04 21:36
Minister: Up to 120 delegations to take part in 9th Our Ocean Conference in Athens
08/04 19:22
Direct flight from Shanghai to Athens offers access to key tourism market for Greece
08/04 18:31
AI conference to attract distinguished speakers to Thessaloniki on April 25-27
04/04 23:28
City of San Jose marks March 25 with 16th Annual Greek Flag Raising Event
04/04 22:16
Urban plans published for seven townships in Thessaloniki and Attica of Greece
04/04 17:24
FinMin: The new EU economic and fiscal framework is good for Greece
04/04 15:30
Greek PM meets with the chiefs of the international pharmaceutical manufacturers
04/04 00:15
Deputy Minister for Macedonia-Thrace meets US Embassy Deputy Mission Chief
03/04 20:12
Syracuse AHEPA Chapter 37 marks March 25th Greek Independence Day
03/04 18:10
Greece's Delphi Economic Forum on April 10-13 to focus on 'The Great Transition'
03/04 16:42
Minister: Industrial production has returned to the pre-crisis levels in Greece
02/04 18:06
30/03 23:21
Eleni Gatzoyiannis scholarship offered to Greek students at Boston University
29/03 16:44
3rd edition of 'This is Athens - City Festival' with 250+ events from May 1 until June 2
29/03 15:53
Athens Metro station Aghia Varvara to stay closed on Saturday and Sunday
29/03 13:55
Greek Foreign Minister for Economic Diplomacy concludes visit to Montenegro
29/03 12:00
29/03 11:51
28/03 18:41
Attica Region to channel 640 bln euros to services of vulnerable and disadvantaged groups
28/03 17:32
Greece to auction three-month T-bills on April 3, 2024 in a book entry form
28/03 15:46
Greece's Meteora Pyli Geopark added to UNESCO Global Geoparks network
28/03 14:44
IPTO announces framework agreement tender for undersea power cables in Greece
28/03 11:49
IOBE: Construction sector in Greece records robust growth and good prospects
26/03 23:51
St. Thomas Hellenic School honors 1821 and the Feast of the Annunciation in NJ
26/03 21:59
PM at Economic Club of Canada: Greece is an attractive investment destination
26/03 17:56
Greek State budget primary balance reaches a surplus of 3,378 million euros
26/03 11:45
Ancient Messene to get upgraded visitors' facilities after approval by Council
23/03 17:43
New requirements for 'Golden Visa' program to kick in on March 31
23/03 16:49
Athenians continue to head out of the Greek Capital for March 25 long weekend
23/03 16:47
Greek Parliament lights to be turned off for Earth Hour 8:30-9:30 pm
22/03 21:54
US President on Greek Independence Day: Alliance with Greece stronger than ever
22/03 19:51
High diplomacy and geopolitics at Delphi Economic Forum IX in Greece
22/03 19:32
Tax authorities enable payments with foreign bank cards in Greece
22/03 14:19
22/03 00:24
Greece ranks first on list of countries with fastest business environment progress
22/03 00:02
Hellenic Police acquires first electric VAN-type highway patrol vehicle
21/03 22:41
21/03 15:33
Unseen Museum presents "The stele of the twin babies" exhibition in Athens
20/03 22:48
Health Minister: 95% of Greek hospitals to perform afternoon surgeries
20/03 21:52
Greek Deputy Minister of Justice meets delegation from US Embassy in Athens
20/03 21:44
Greek Interior Minister to visit United States and Canada on postal vote
20/03 20:55
Philadelphia Icarians mark 85th Anniversary and organize Apokriatiko Dance
20/03 18:01
Development Minister: We continue the battle against high prices in Greece
19/03 22:28
President of the Hellenic Republic meets her Ethiopian counterpart in Athens
19/03 20:57
19/03 20:25
FinMIn: Moody’s analysis records significant progress in the Greek economy
19/03 11:15
Sector chiefs report: Good news for Greek tourism in 2024 at ITB Berlin
18/03 22:20
American Hellenic Educational Progressive Association honors Past Supreme President
16/03 13:01
Greek Deputy Foreign Μinister meets her Slovenian counterpart in Athens
16/03 12:56
Greek-Canadian Diaspora to welcome Greek Prime Minister to Toronto
16/03 11:28
Greek Migration Minister visits refugee hosting facilities in Kavala, Drama and Serres
15/03 21:50
Greek Minister announces conference on defence ecosystem in Athens from Lithuania
15/03 13:45
PM: More than 80 hospitals and 156 health centres being upgraded in Greece
15/03 12:55
Piraeus Port and Genoa Chambers of Commerce ink memorandum of cooperation
14/03 23:43
President of Hellenic Republic meets Prime Minister of Slovakia in Bratislava
14/03 22:58
American Express report highlights Global Travel Trends during 2024
14/03 22:52
Four hospitals in Attica Region already organizing afternoon surgical procedures
14/03 22:49
US Ambassador to Athens: More flights from the United States to Greece and Thessaloniki
14/03 22:43
Greek archaeologists discover ten ancient shipwrecks off Aegean island of Kasos
'Nature Positive' peport highlights new collaborative era in travel & tourism
Over 114,000 Greek Diaspora citizens register to vote by post in the European elections
Greek and Turkish delegations discuss Confidence Building Measures for 2024
'Easter Basket' and 'Godparents basket' to be put into effect next week in Greece
Greek Climate Change Minister signs memorandum for Attica fire protection zones
Athens State Orchestra presents 'St. Matthew's Passion' by Bach on April 30th
8th Delphi Economic Forum to be held in Central Greece on April 26-29
Greek Deputy Transport Minister flies in first test seaplane flight from Lavrio port
Greek supermarkets record rise in value and decline in volume of FMCG sales
Greek Minister of Culture: Revenues from visitors to the Athens Acropolis rise in 2023
Greek Tourism Minister concludes meetings with luxury travel officials in New York
Holiday opening hours for shops resume in Greece on Wednesday
United Nations Tourism opens calls for Best Tourism Villages 2024
Greek Environment Minister meets Chinese Deputy Minister of Natural Resources
30th Agrotica inauguration: Agriculture Minister issues invitation to farmers to sit at talks
AEGEAN concludes transfer of stake in Animawings to Memento Group
Public transport, ferry and taxi strikes in Athens on Wednesday
Trapped rack-railway passengers returned safely to Diakopto in Peloponnese
CEO: The goal is for PPC to become a leading player in Southeast Europe