IATA: Coronavirus may slash $29 billion from Airlines’ revenue globally
New York - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced that its initial assessment of the impact of the Novel Coronavirus 2019 outbreak (COVID-19) shows a potential 13% full-year loss of passenger demand for carriers in the Asia-Pacific region. Considering that growth for the region’s airlines was forecast to be 4.8%, the net impact will be an 8.2% full-year contraction compared to 2019 demand levels. In this scenario, that would translate into a $27.8 billion revenue loss in 2020 for carriers in the Asia-Pacific region—the bulk of which would be borne by carriers registered in China, with $12.8 billion loss in the China domestic market alone.
In the same scenario, carriers outside Asia-Pacific are forecast to bear a revenue loss of $1.5 billion, assuming the loss of demand is limited to markets linked to China. This would bring total global lost revenue to $29.3 billion (5% lower passenger revenues compared to what IATA forecast in December) and represent a 4.7% hit to global demand. In December, IATA forecast global RPK growth of 4.1%, so this loss would more than eliminate expected growth this year, resulting in a 0.6% global contraction in passenger demand for 2020.
These estimates are based on a scenario where COVID-19 has a similar V-shaped impact on demand as was experienced during SARS. That was characterized by a six-month period with a sharp decline followed by an equally quick recovery. In 2003, SARS was responsible for the 5.1% fall in the RPKs carried by Asia-Pacific airlines.
The estimated impact of the COVID-19 outbreak also assumes that the center of the public health emergency remains in China. If it spreads more widely to Asia-Pacific markets then impacts on airlines from other regions would be larger.
It is premature to estimate what this revenue loss will mean for global profitability. We don’t yet know exactly how the outbreak will develop and whether it will follow the same profile as SARS or not. Governments will use fiscal and monetary policy to try to offset the adverse economic impacts. Some relief may be seen in lower fuel prices for some airlines, depending on how fuel costs have been hedged.
“These are challenging times for the global air transport industry. Stopping the spread of the virus is the top priority. Airlines are following the guidance of the World Health Organization (WHO) and other public health authorities to keep passengers safe, the world connected, and the virus contained. The sharp downturn in demand as a result of COVID-19 will have a financial impact on airlines—severe for those particularly exposed to the China market. We estimate that global traffic will be reduced by 4.7% by the virus, which could more than offset the growth we previously forecast and cause the first overall decline in demand since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09. And that scenario would translate into lost passenger revenues of $29.3 billion. Airlines are making difficult decisions to cut capacity and in some cases routes. Lower fuel costs will help offset some of the lost revenue. This will be a very tough year for airlines,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO.
Role of Governments
Governments have an important role to play in this crisis:
Operations: Airlines have developed standards and best practices linked to the International Health Regulations (IHR) to manage effectively and efficiently in times of public health emergencies. Airlines, therefore, depend on governments to also follow the IHR so we have an effective global approach to containing the outbreak. “We have learned a lot from previous outbreaks. And that is reflected in the IHR. Governments need to follow it consistently,” said de Juniac.
Leadership: It is also important for governments to take leadership in shoring up their economies. The Singapore government, for example, is allocating SGD 112 million to provide financial relief to airlines and the aviation sector struggling to economically maintain connectivity. “Airlines and governments are in this together. We have a public health emergency, and we must try everything to keep it from becoming an economic crisis. Relief on airport costs will help maintain vital air connectivity. Other governments should take good note and act quickly,” said de Juniac.
Advice to Travelers
The WHO has not called for restrictions on travel or trade. Indeed, air transport plays a major role—bringing medical staff and supplies to where they are needed.
WHO has published extensive advice to travelers on its website. Passengers should be reassured that cabin air is filtered, that aircraft are cleaned in line with global standards, that key airports have implemented temperature screening for travelers and that airline staff and crew are trained to deal with the rare case of a passenger presenting with symptoms of infection.
“If you are sick, don’t travel. If you have flu-like symptoms, wear a mask and see a doctor. And when you travel wash your hands frequently and don’t touch your face. Observing these simple measures should keep flying safe for all,” said Dr. David Powell, IATA’s Medical Advisor.
RELATED TOPICS: Greece, Greek tourism news, Tourism in Greece, Greek islands, Hotels in Greece, Travel to Greece, Greek destinations, Greek travel market, Greek tourism statistics, Greek tourism report
Photo Source: Wikimedia Commons License: CC-BY-SA Copyright: Martin Roell
- 1) Direct flight from Shanghai to Athens offers access to key tourism market for Greece
- 2) US Ambassador to Athens: More flights from the United States to Greece and Thessaloniki
- 3) Chairman: 2023 was an exceptional one for AEGEAN Airlines
- 4) Flights to and from Heraklion airport in Crete resume on Saturday
23/04 23:52
Greece’s New Ambassador to the United States visits Queens in New York
23/04 21:49
Traffic regulations in Athens due to the Olympic Torch Relay on Thursday-Friday
23/04 20:59
President of the Hellenic Republic wrapping up visit to Uruguay at parliament
23/04 15:44
Greek government will pass legislation halving commission paid for POS transactions
23/04 15:03
Precise location of Plato's burial site unveiled by ancient papyrus
22/04 22:33
'Nature Positive' peport highlights new collaborative era in travel & tourism
22/04 21:25
22/04 20:37
Greek and Turkish delegations discuss Confidence Building Measures for 2024
22/04 18:29
Over 114,000 Greek Diaspora citizens register to vote by post in the European elections
22/04 13:40
19/04 01:29
Athens State Orchestra presents 'St. Matthew's Passion' by Bach on April 30th
18/04 21:49
Greek Climate Change Minister signs memorandum for Attica fire protection zones
18/04 20:32
'Easter Basket' and 'Godparents basket' to be put into effect next week in Greece
18/04 20:17
18/04 17:40
17/04 21:06
Thessaloniki Port: Performance growth for 2023 with record container throughput
17/04 20:57
Traffic regulations imposed in Athens for the 41st Peace Marathon on Sunday
17/04 20:52
17/04 18:15
Greek Foreign Minister addresses the 9th Our Ocean Conference in Athens
17/04 17:12
16/04 21:02
NHM hosts the Trial of Pericles at the Harris Theater in Chicago on April 17
16/04 20:17
Greece will invest $830 million to protect marine biodiversity
16/04 01:46
New York Greek Independence Parade honors 1821 and solemn Cyprus Anniversary
16/04 01:35
Olympic Games Paris 2024: Olympic Flame to be lit at Ancient Olympia in Greece
16/04 00:29
European Committee of Regions and UN release study on Rural Tourism
15/04 20:41
15/04 19:58
Minister: Greece is transforming into a hub for exporting quality agri-food products
15/04 18:51
Greek Environment Minister meets Chinese Deputy Minister of Natural Resources
13/04 00:13
UN Tourism and Croatia to launch Research Centre for Sustainable Tourism
12/04 00:03
2024 marks a critical year in the enduring strength of Greek-German relations
12/04 00:00
11/04 22:07
Ambassador: US committed to upgrade of Greek military and support NATO's SE flank
11/04 19:40
Hellenic Pride on display at rainy Chicago Greek Independence Day Parade
11/04 02:06
Delphi Economic Forum IX: Energy collaboration a 'key' in Greek-Bulgarian relations
11/04 01:58
UN Tourism launches investment guidelines for Albania sector
10/04 19:01
Greek FinMin: New package of economic measures in 2025 to lower taxes, raise pensions
10/04 18:25
Greek city of Nafplion hosts Mediterranean Yacht Show for ninth year running
09/04 23:57
Greek PM on Tilos: Innovative projects for a cyclical economy are of key significance
09/04 23:55
UN Tourism members promote agenda for Europe as region leads global recovery
09/04 23:46
HFS presents 1968, Rousing Docudrama about Greece’s First European Cup April 21
09/04 22:48
Stolen 7th-century BC oenochoe returned to Greece by Hanover museum, municipality
09/04 22:42
Greek civil servants confederation ADEDY to strike on May 21
09/04 21:55
Greek Migration Minister meets Senior US Coordinator for Lawful Migration
08/04 23:48
08/04 23:41
Elliniko-Argyroupoli Mayor marches in Greek Independence Philadelphia Parade
08/04 21:53
Project Voria casino complex in Maroussi moving ahead after environmental report
08/04 21:36
Minister: Up to 120 delegations to take part in 9th Our Ocean Conference in Athens
08/04 19:22
Direct flight from Shanghai to Athens offers access to key tourism market for Greece
08/04 18:31
AI conference to attract distinguished speakers to Thessaloniki on April 25-27
04/04 23:28
City of San Jose marks March 25 with 16th Annual Greek Flag Raising Event
04/04 22:16
Urban plans published for seven townships in Thessaloniki and Attica of Greece
04/04 17:24
FinMin: The new EU economic and fiscal framework is good for Greece
04/04 15:30
Greek PM meets with the chiefs of the international pharmaceutical manufacturers
04/04 00:15
Deputy Minister for Macedonia-Thrace meets US Embassy Deputy Mission Chief
03/04 20:12
Syracuse AHEPA Chapter 37 marks March 25th Greek Independence Day
03/04 18:10
Greece's Delphi Economic Forum on April 10-13 to focus on 'The Great Transition'
03/04 16:42
Minister: Industrial production has returned to the pre-crisis levels in Greece
02/04 18:06
30/03 23:21
Eleni Gatzoyiannis scholarship offered to Greek students at Boston University
29/03 16:44
3rd edition of 'This is Athens - City Festival' with 250+ events from May 1 until June 2
29/03 15:53
Athens Metro station Aghia Varvara to stay closed on Saturday and Sunday
29/03 13:55
Greek Foreign Minister for Economic Diplomacy concludes visit to Montenegro
29/03 12:00
29/03 11:51
28/03 18:41
Attica Region to channel 640 bln euros to services of vulnerable and disadvantaged groups
28/03 17:32
Greece to auction three-month T-bills on April 3, 2024 in a book entry form
28/03 15:46
Greece's Meteora Pyli Geopark added to UNESCO Global Geoparks network
28/03 14:44
IPTO announces framework agreement tender for undersea power cables in Greece
28/03 11:49
IOBE: Construction sector in Greece records robust growth and good prospects
26/03 23:51
St. Thomas Hellenic School honors 1821 and the Feast of the Annunciation in NJ
26/03 21:59
PM at Economic Club of Canada: Greece is an attractive investment destination
26/03 17:56
Greek State budget primary balance reaches a surplus of 3,378 million euros
26/03 11:45
Ancient Messene to get upgraded visitors' facilities after approval by Council
23/03 17:43
New requirements for 'Golden Visa' program to kick in on March 31
23/03 16:49
Athenians continue to head out of the Greek Capital for March 25 long weekend
23/03 16:47
Greek Parliament lights to be turned off for Earth Hour 8:30-9:30 pm
22/03 21:54
US President on Greek Independence Day: Alliance with Greece stronger than ever
22/03 19:51
High diplomacy and geopolitics at Delphi Economic Forum IX in Greece
22/03 19:32
Tax authorities enable payments with foreign bank cards in Greece
22/03 14:19
22/03 00:24
Greece ranks first on list of countries with fastest business environment progress
22/03 00:02
Hellenic Police acquires first electric VAN-type highway patrol vehicle
21/03 22:41
21/03 15:33
Unseen Museum presents "The stele of the twin babies" exhibition in Athens
20/03 22:48
Health Minister: 95% of Greek hospitals to perform afternoon surgeries
20/03 21:52
Greek Deputy Minister of Justice meets delegation from US Embassy in Athens
20/03 21:44
Greek Interior Minister to visit United States and Canada on postal vote
20/03 20:55
Philadelphia Icarians mark 85th Anniversary and organize Apokriatiko Dance
20/03 18:01
Development Minister: We continue the battle against high prices in Greece
19/03 22:28
President of the Hellenic Republic meets her Ethiopian counterpart in Athens
19/03 20:57
19/03 20:25
FinMIn: Moody’s analysis records significant progress in the Greek economy
19/03 11:15
Sector chiefs report: Good news for Greek tourism in 2024 at ITB Berlin
18/03 22:20
American Hellenic Educational Progressive Association honors Past Supreme President
16/03 13:01
Greek Deputy Foreign Μinister meets her Slovenian counterpart in Athens
16/03 12:56
Greek-Canadian Diaspora to welcome Greek Prime Minister to Toronto
16/03 11:28
Greek Migration Minister visits refugee hosting facilities in Kavala, Drama and Serres
15/03 21:50
Greek Minister announces conference on defence ecosystem in Athens from Lithuania
15/03 13:45
PM: More than 80 hospitals and 156 health centres being upgraded in Greece
15/03 12:55
Piraeus Port and Genoa Chambers of Commerce ink memorandum of cooperation
Precise location of Plato's burial site unveiled by ancient papyrus
Greece’s New Ambassador to the United States visits Queens in New York
President of the Hellenic Republic wrapping up visit to Uruguay at parliament
Traffic regulations in Athens due to the Olympic Torch Relay on Thursday-Friday
Greek government will pass legislation halving commission paid for POS transactions
'Nature Positive' peport highlights new collaborative era in travel & tourism
Over 114,000 Greek Diaspora citizens register to vote by post in the European elections
Greek and Turkish delegations discuss Confidence Building Measures for 2024
Prime Minister: Greece is Serbia's most stable ally in its European prospect
Greek Deputy Transport Minister flies in first test seaplane flight from Lavrio port
Resilience through diversity and investments the aim of UN Tourism visit to Jamaica
Greek Tourism Minister concludes meetings with luxury travel officials in New York
Greek archaeologists discover ten ancient shipwrecks off Aegean island of Kasos
EU forecasts Greece 2024 growth at 2.3%, Eurozone’s fourth-highest rate
DEFEA Conference to be held at Stavros Niarchos Foundation in Athens on May 15
Rally concludes with farmer tractors leaving Athens on Wednesday morning
Greek Environment Minister meets Chinese Deputy Minister of Natural Resources
Transport Minister: Thessaloniki Metro project will be fully operational by end 2024
AEGEAN concludes transfer of stake in Animawings to Memento Group
Culture Ministry: Schwartz Mansion in Ampelakia near Larisa to get new lighting
Price cuts of up to 15% in important product categories in Greece after March 1
Greece is represented by 60 firms at GULFOOD 2024 exhibition
Hellenic-American Cultural Foundation presents lecture with US University President