Spain expects tourism revenue to fall in 2025

The Spanish tourism industry, a key driver of the country’s economy, is expecting a significant slowdown in summer sales growth as global uncertainty, including tariff negotiations with the United States, threatens to curb international consumer spending. Nevertheless, a new record number of visits is expected, according to the latest figures from Exceltur, the powerful Spanish tourism association.

Exceltur estimates that revenue from hotels, airlines, restaurants, and other tourism activities will increase by 2.7% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025. This is the main quarter of the tourist season in Spain, which is the second most popular tourist country in the world. However, this percentage appears significantly reduced compared to the 6.3% increase recorded in the corresponding period of 2024.

Already, in the second quarter of the year, sales growth was limited to 4.5%, while Exceltur warns of a possible decrease in arrivals from major European markets, such as Germany and France. On the contrary, arrivals from the United Kingdom, the United States, Japan, and China are expected to continue to increase, but at a slower pace.

Exceltur vice president Oscar Perelli, speaking at a press conference in Madrid, noted that since the end of 2024, there has been a decline in tourism from the United States, due to changes in exchange rates—a negative development that is expected to continue this year.

“At the same time, we are seeing an acceleration in the shift of travel within Europe, as Europeans prefer to stay and travel within the continent, while Asian travelers are also looking for alternative destinations to the United States,” Perelli said.

2025 estimate revised down

In light of these developments, Exceltur has revised down its estimate for annual tourism growth to 3.3% from the 4% it had forecast at the beginning of the year. Despite the reduction in expectations, the tourism sector continues to outperform the Spanish economy as a whole, which is expected to grow by 2.4% this year.

“At the beginning of the year, we thought that 2025 would be a very good year. Now we believe that it will be just a good year,” Perelli said. “The confidence of tourism entrepreneurs has been affected by the climate of uncertainty,” he added.

Record visitors, but cautious optimism

Despite the reservations, the outlook for tourism remains positive in terms of the number of arrivals. The World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) expects Spain to record a new historical record with 100 million visitors in 2025.

Exceltur estimates that total tourism revenues will correspond to 13.2% of Spain’s GDP this year, confirming the strategic importance of the sector for the country’s economic stability.

The Spanish tourism market is called upon this year to balance between strong international trends, such as increasing internal mobility in Europe, inflationary pressures, and exchange rate volatility, while maintaining its lead as one of the world’s leading tourist destinations.