Last-minute bookings: Greece’s battle with Spain, Turkey, and Egypt

This summer season in Europe is proving to be extremely demanding for tourism organizations, with last-minute bookings shaping – for another year – the final sales balance sheets. Despite a strong push from early bookings from autumn 2023 to January 2024, demand waned in the following months, with attention now turning almost exclusively to the last-minute market.

April with obstacles, but May brought recovery

According to data from Travel Data + Analytics (TDA), the booking curve this year showed a shift due to the Easter holidays that fell late in April, leading to weak new bookings that month. However, a clear recovery has been observed since the beginning of May, as noted by Roland Gassner, head of business development at TDA. TUI and other major tour operators have already seen a rise in sales.

However, the impact of this recovery is limited. By the end of April, total sales for package holidays were up just 4% compared to last year, with the number of travellers slightly down compared to 2023. The increase comes almost exclusively from prices, not booking volumes.

Price pressure and inflation “explosion” in Turkey

While package prices have increased by around 40% in the five years 2019-2024, this year’s price increases continue, mainly due to inflation and rising costs for hoteliers and airlines. The situation is particularly acute in Turkey, where inflation is still around 40%. As a result, although overall sales are relatively stable, the number of visitors to the country has fallen by 5% compared to the previous summer.

This has allowed Spain to regain the lead in summer bookings, with destinations such as Mallorca overtaking Turkey, which last year had moved ahead for the first time.

Greece: A positive sign, but no triumph

Greece, which in 2023 set a record with 5.4 million German visitors, continues to record good progress this year. Despite price increases, it remains competitive with Turkey and attracts travelers looking for more affordable solutions. As Gassner points out, some tourists who traditionally chose Turkey are turning to Greece, Egypt, and Bulgaria this year – countries that are showing double-digit increases in bookings from tour operators.

The absorption of some of the demand from the bankruptcy of FTI, Germany’s third-largest tourism organization, is also benefiting Greece, as well as Egypt and Turkey, where FTI’s presence was traditionally strong.

Who benefits from FTI’s collapse?

FTI’s bankruptcy has shaped a new landscape in the tourism market. Its competitors – such as TUI, Dertour, Schauinsland and Anex Group (which includes Öger Tours) – are gaining access to a revenue pie exceeding 3 billion euros. Some of them are already recording double-digit growth rates.

In this context, many Turkish hoteliers have mobilized dynamically, offering special prices to tour operators, with discounts of 10%-15% on selected hotels, while more affordable accommodations are being proposed on the second or third row from the beach. The aim is to keep alive the last-minute market, in which Turkey has excelled in the last two years.

US in decline – Asia and cruises gain ground

Outside Europe, the US market is recording a significant decline: new bookings from Germany are down by more than 30% compared to last year, mainly due to costs. Tourists are turning to more affordable long-haul destinations, such as the Caribbean, Thailand, and other Asian countries. Correspondingly, Australia, the United Arab Emirates, and destinations in sub-Saharan Africa are showing an increase in demand.

It is noteworthy that cruises continue their upward trend, boosted by the construction of new ships and the return of public confidence.

Last-minute bookings: No longer “bargains,” but delayed decisions

Last-minute package prices are no longer characterized by the great deals of the past. The “rescue package” of last-minute bookings is always the weather. A rainy June in Germany could act as a catalyst for last-minute bookings. Consumers no longer have much hope for “bargains” – good prices are rare – but the need for a vacation, even if delayed, remains strong.

As Gassner notes, about 10-15% of German consumers are now on the “I can barely afford to go on vacation” threshold. However, they continue to plan trips, almost out of social and psychological inertia. The trend could be reversed if job cuts increase, especially in the sensitive automotive sector.

A summer of expectations and risks

The tourism sector in Europe is on hold: although last-minute bookings can boost turnover, there is no guarantee that targets will be exceeded. Greece remains on a growth trajectory, benefiting from its relative price stability and its reputation as a safe and hospitable destination.

However, as everything indicates, the summer of 2024 will not be a summer of “easy sales”. It will be a summer of adjustments, rapid movements, targeted offers, and constant monitoring of the market, especially last-minute bookings that may determine the final outcome.

(*) With information from fvw

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