German tourism: -16% leisure travel sales in June, increase for Kos, Rhodes, Heraklion

German package holiday bookings dropped by 16% in June despite the rapidly approaching summer holidays but there are signs of a last-minute upturn for Turkey this month, according to market surveys and tour operators.

With school summer holidays due to start across most of Germany in mid- or late July, travel agents and tour operators had hoped for a surge of late bookings last month to compensate for weak sales during the spring.

But leisure travel sales by German travel agents slumped by 16% last month compared to the same month last year, according to the monthly GfK representative survey of some 1,200 travel agencies. This left cumulated sales for the summer 2016 season 8% lower than last year. Agents would now have to sell 22% of last year’s total revenues in the next four months to achieve zero growth for the season as a whole.

The GfK market researchers see this as highly unlikely. “Even if late sales and last-minute bookings pick up strongly in the coming weeks because of the end of the Euro 2016 championship and the wet summer weather, it is increasingly improbable that last year’s level can still be reached,” they commented.

There were few signs of a surge in late bookings last month, according to the survey. Last-minute sales for departures in June dropped by 1.5 percentage points to an all-time low of 4.3% while sales of July departures increased by only 1.8 percentage points to 20.2% in revenue terms.

In terms of departure months, May (-5.5%) and June (-5%) closed well behind last year, July sales are currently running at about last year’s level, August is showing a massive fall of 20% and the early autumn months of September (-6.6%) and October (-8%) are also trailing behind.

Rise in cruise holiday sales

The GfK figures are significantly worse than those in the earlier monthly survey by IT services company TATS, which showed that leisure travel sales dropped by 2.4% in June, including a 4.2% rise in cruise holiday sales.

These survey results are underlined by the latest figures for German package holiday bookings to leading destination airports from reservations giant Traveltainment. Five of the seven largest destination airports saw lower bookings in June, according to its sales data.

Bookings to Antalya slumped by 31% last month compared to June 2015 but Palma was also down by 5%. Third-placed Heraklion bucked the trend with an 11% rise and Las Palmas showed a slight 3% increase. In contrast, Fuerteventura was down by 14% last month, Hurghada by 47% and Tenerife South by 2%. Strong growth was registered by Rhodes (+12%), Kos (+42%) and Varna (+31%).

Many Germans appear to have decided on self-drive overland destinations, possibly combined with holiday homes, for this summer rather than book flight-based package holidays, according to some experts. For example, Aquilin Schömig, managing director of the Derpart travel agency chain, said many customers are discovering new destinations such as Ireland and Norway this year.

More optimistically, Rolf-Dieter Maltzahn, head of DER Touristik’s Cologne-based package holiday unit, claimed that bookings have been picking up for the last two months. “Families are realising that the summer holidays are just around the corner and they still haven’t booked anything,” he commented. “There is still plenty of capacity available everywhere, even in Spain there are still things free.”

Similarly, L’Tur product chief Benjamin Weiss commented: “Demand has been well ahead of last year, especially in the last fortnight.”

Recovering demand 

On a positive note, there are signs that demand is now recovering for the Turkish Riviera and that there is even a shortage of flights after many airlines reduced capacity earlier this year. “Many departure dates for Antalya in July are no longer available. There’s a lack of seats. It’s not a dramatic amount, but we could have sold more,” Bentour Reisen CEO Deniz Ugur told fvw.

Öger Tours has also felt the shortage and in June contracted 10,000 more seats on flights from eight German airports. “But we still see more demand for capacity at short notice for the summer holidays,” said Turkey product manager Altan Tarakci. “We are currently getting lots of enquiries from travel agents who urgently want more seats because families are standing in front of the counter and want to book.”

FTI’s Hicabi Ayhan, group head of destination, agreed capacity was tight for mid-July but added: “Our customers can still find plenty of connections for end-July and for August.” He said: “Since April we’ve seen a double-digit rise in demand compared to last year. We’re keeping to our aim of slightly exceeding last year’s passenger numbers.”

In response to this higher demand, Sun Express has increased capacity for July and August at short notice. “We’re offering 25,000 more seats in July and a further 10,000 in August, and are currently speaking with various tour operators about further capacity,” commercial director Peter Glade told fvw.

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