Greek Tourism | National Bank: + 3-5% arrivals in 2025

Greek tourism remains on an upward trajectory in 2025, with estimates converging on an increase in arrivals of around 3%-5%, in line with the global trend.

This assessment is given by National Bank analysts in the new issue of the “Business Trends” study series of the Economic Analysis Department.

This assessment, as stated in the study, is supported by:

i) air traffic indicators (+10% in Q1 arrivals and +4% in planned May-October positions) and

ii) hotel expectations (+5% increase in arrivals in 2025, estimated by SMEs in the sector based on a survey by NBG.

It is noted, however, that these expectations are accompanied by high uncertainty, as international geopolitical and economic developments strongly affect the willingness to spend on travel (indicatively, the consumer confidence index in the main European markets is 5 points lower than the long-term average).

As Greek tourism has made leaps and bounds in the period 2013-2024 (arrivals: +63%), interest has shifted from records to the growth model. Thus, in the continuation of the study, the analysts of the Bank focus on the axes:

(i) markets and

(ii) destinations,

They are the two critical parameters on which the design of a sustainable development strategy will be defined and based.

Regarding origins, “long-haul” markets will constitute a significant part of the medium-term dynamics of the sector, contributing ½ of the growth in global tourism over the next 10 years.

In this context, attracting long-haul tourists will allow Greece to transition to a new tourism model with less seasonality and higher average spending.

The first signs in this direction are shown by the winter performance, with the USA gaining share (to 7% from 6% in 2024) and at the same time excelling in terms of spending per arrival (double compared to other markets) and seasonality (with ½ arrivals outside the summer, compared to ⅓ for other arrivals).

Positively in the above perspective is the strengthening of direct air connections, with the US markets (reaching approximately 100 flights/week in summer 2025, almost double compared to pre-pandemic) and China (reaching approximately 12 flights/week in summer 2025, almost triple compared to pre-pandemic).

Examining the level of response of destinations to the current challenges and utilizing the findings of regular research in Greek hotels, it emerges that the "mature" tourist areas are following an effective and coherent strategy with a dual target:

(i) competitiveness and

(ii) adaptation to new trends.

Specifically, more than ⅔ of them have implemented investments in the past three years, with an emphasis on growth (autonomous or through partnerships). At the same time, they have largely adapted their entire strategy to the new data of global demand, with percentages of around ½ proceeding with relevant initiatives of digitalization, energy upgrading and highlighting local experiences and products.

However, hotels in the remaining regions of the country prove to be less “mobile” in all of the above parameters, with their potential being approximately ⅓ of that of mature ones in terms of growth strategies and approximately ½ in terms of adaptation strategies to new traveler preferences.

As emerging global trends "match" the "new and alternative" that lesser-known Greek destinations can offer, adopting a more developmental and targeted strategy (on the model of mature regions) will allow them to reap significant benefits from the new tourism wave and at the same time allow the country to achieve more balanced development, the Bank's study concludes.

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